...reading statistics carefully

The facilitators distributed copies of the chart providing statistics for the years 1974 to 1993 about Youths Aged 12-17 Accused of a Homicide Offence. We asked them to consider what this chart tells them, and what questions it raises for them. 

We pointed out the dangers of comparing the figures for different years, as any "conclusion" inferred about "increase" or "decrease" depends on what years are picked for comparison. 

For example, taking the years 1985 to 1993, one might say the murder rate "declined sharply" from 57 to 35. Or, taking the same number of years but going back a year at each end, from 1984 to 1992, one might ay the murder rate "soared" from 36 to 58.

Also, "accused" people are not necessarily convicted, and are considered innocent until proven guilty in law. (On the other hand, acquittals on the basis of legal technicalities alone do little to reduce community fear and concern.) 

There is no doubt that statistics can contain some important information and trends and are not to be dismissed. But they are to be read with vigilance and a certain wariness. There is substantial reason to believe that much of the increase in some of the violent crime reported through official statistics reflects changes in reporting of crime and in how violence gets defined, rather than actual changes in terms of victimization. The increase in those categories of violent crime, when one attempts to take into account changes in reporting practices, appear to be very gradual and can probably be attributable to changes in social conditions. The level of actual risk does not warrant and increase in fear (as a matter of fact, historians have been able to document quite well that, over the long term, we live in times much safer than in previous centuries; we have a greater awareness of human rights and social justice standards). 

This is not to dismiss the seriousness of the problems we must still address. The various possible interpretations of statistical "trends" are no consolation to grieving and traumatized victims and communities: one murder is one too many.